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- Andrew Sum
- Center for Labor Market Studies
- Northeastern University
- Prepared for
- Senior Service America and
- Session on Race, Poverty, and Aging Baby Boomers
- 2006 American Library Association Conference
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- The aging of the post-World War II baby boom generation has just begun
and will continue at a rapid and historically unprecedented pace over
the next ten years; the first members of the baby boom generation became
55 in 2001
- Over the 2004-2015 period, the number of 55-74 year olds will increase
from 47.542 million to 67.08 million, a gain of 19.5 million or 41%. The
number of 60-69 year olds will
rise by 50 to 57 per cent over this time period.
- The older worker population will grow at a rate 8x as fast as the
population 16-54; in fact, some younger age groups will actually
experience a decline in their population size due to the aging of the
baby bust generation.
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- The aging of the population will have important consequences for the
aging of the labor force, the recruitment, retention policies of the
nation’s employers, the workforce development and adult basic education
systems, the health care delivery / disability system, and the nation’s
income transfer systems, including Social Security, disability income
- In the absence of dramatic improvements in the income position of low
income groups, we are very likely to see a dramatic increase in the number
of poor and low income older households over the next ten years. Similar
findings apply to the number of disabled older individuals. These two
developments are related: the
incidence of poverty / near poverty problems is considerably higher
among the disabled than the non-disabled population; nearly 30% of the
disabled older adults are members of poor or near poor households.
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- The nation is not very well prepared for these forthcoming demographic
developments: the growth of the older population will require dramatic
changes in the adult education, healthcare, vocational rehabilitation,
and workforce development systems.
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- Between 2004 and 2015, the number of 55-74 year olds in the resident
population of the U.S. is projected to increase from 47.5 million to
67.0 million, an increase of 19.5 million or 41%
- Among those 60-64 and 65-69 years of age, these increases will be even
greater at 49 and 57 per cent, respectively.
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- In contrast, the number of 16-54 year olds is projected to rise by only
2.9 million or 1.8%. Persons 55-74 will account for nearly 88% of the
nation’s growth in its working-age population 16-74 years old, a
historically unprecedented share of the nation’s population growth over
any decade.
- There will be some geographic variability in the older population’s
share of growth in the overall working-age across states and regions. In
some states (Alabama, Connecticut, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania,
Illinois), all of the growth in the working-age population (16+) will be
generated by the older population (55-74) over the coming decade.
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- There are a variety of measures that have been used to measure income
inadequacy among families in the U.S. including the federal government’s
poverty lines, the near poor income thresholds (125% of poverty), low
income measures (two times poverty), and Family Economic
Self-Sufficiency measures (3* poverty in many areas).
- The federal government poverty thresholds have been subject to a wide
variety of criticisms (lower thresholds for households headed by persons
over 65, outdated consumption bundles, no local or state cost of living
adjustments)
- Review the size of the income levels equivalent to 100%, 125%, and 200%
of the poverty thresholds for households containing 1 to 3 persons
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- The share of the 55-74 year old population experiencing various types of
income inadequacy problems in March 2005 varied as follows
- Poor 9.7%
- Poor or near poor 13.1%
- Poor or near poor excluding cash public assistance 14.9%
- Low income 26.6%
- The older worker population experiencing PNP problems was typically
lower than that of younger adults; persons under 25 were most likely to
experience PNP problem in 2004
- Review the size of the income levels equivalent to 100%, 125%, and 200%
of the poverty thresholds for households containing 1 to 3 persons
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- How does the incidence of income inadequacy problems among the older
population vary by age group, educational attainment, race-ethnic group.
- Relative gaps in income inadequacy problems between the best educated
(M.A. and higher) and less well-educated typically ranged from 6-7
times higher on each measure
- How does the incidence of these poverty / near poverty problems among
the older population vary across age groups, educational attainment
groups, and geographic areas (regions and states)?
- Wide variations across the nine geographic divisions (10.5% West North
Central region of Midwest to 17.4% in East South Central region of
South
- Across the states PNP rates of older persons ranged from lows of 6%
among Utah and Idaho to 20% in Louisiana, West Virginia, Mississippi
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- Disability problems in the U.S rise fairly steadily with age after age
35; nearly 19% of all 55-74 year olds in the U.S. were categorized as
disabled in 2004.
- The incidence of disability problems rises with the age of older persons
increasing steadily from 16% for those 55-59 to 24% for those 75-79
- Disability problems are also strongly associated with the educational
attainment of 55-74 year olds; those older adults lacking a regular high
school diploma or a GED were 4* more likely to be disabled than their
peers with a Master’s or higher degree
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- The disabled older adult population was 3* as likely to be poor / near
poor as their non-disabled peers (28% vs. 9%)
- The less educated disabled were considerably more likely to be poor /
near poor than their better educated peers; 43% of disabled adults with
no diploma were poor / near poor vs. 14% of those with an MA or higher
degree
- Another 6.3 million 55-74 year olds were disabled but not classified as
poor / near poor; many of these also will require income support, health
support, vocational rehabilitation services, and workforce development
services
- If disability rates by age and gender remain unchanged over the coming
decade,there will be an additional 3.661 million disabled 55-74 year
olds in the U.S.
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- Projections of the future growth of the older PNP population requires
two sets of data and some assumptions
- Projected growth of the population by age group and gender from
2004-2015
- Projected incidence of PNP rates for age / gender groups in 2015; we
have assumed that the PNP rates in 2015 will be the same as those
prevailing in 2004; between 2000 and 2004 the PNP rates for the
nation’s 55-74 year old population was fairly stable (it fell modestly
from 13.3% to 13.0%
- Projections of the size of the older PNP population in the U.S. over the
2004-2015 period reveal an increase from 6.254 million to 8.844 million,
a rise of nearly 2.6 million in 41%.
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- The nation’s total PNP population (all ages) is projected to grow by 4.91
million over this time period. Older persons (55-74) will account for 53%
of the increase in the nation’s PNP population over the coming decade.
- Our existing adult basic education and adult workforce development
programs (WIA, SCSEP) serve only a very small fraction of (2-100) the
eligible population (91,000 persons over 55 in WIA and SCSEP and 98,000
in adult basic education), not all of whom in WIA or ABE were
disadvantaged; at most only 1 to 2 of every 100 eligibles receive some
type of education or workforce development assistance, excluding job
search assistance from labor exchange office.
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- The distribution of income among households headed by an older
individual is very unequal and the degree of income inequality has
increased over time. The shares of money income captured in 2004 by
households at various points along the income distribution were as
follows:
- Decile 1 (Bottom) 1%
- Decile 2 2.4%
- Decile 5 6.1%
- Decile 9 18%
- Decile 10 (Top) 34%
- Key Findings:
- Top decile received 34* as much income as households in the bottom
decile
- Top two deciles get 52% of all income; more than the remaining 80 per
cent of households combined.
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- The Nation’s Older Population with Low Literacy Skills and Limited
Schooling Experience a Variety of Income, Employment, Health, Literacy
Engagement, and Civic Deficits
- The less educated and less literate members of the older population are
much more likely to have low incomes and be poor
- NALS survey findings for adults 60+ showed that those with household
incomes under $10,000 had an average literacy score in the lowest
level; their mean score was more than one full standard deviation below
those with household incomes above $20,000 in the early 1990s. These
findings held true for both older men and women.
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- Today, every type of income inadequacy problem among the older
population is strongly linked to their educational attainment; in March
2005, 30% of the nation’s 55-74 year olds without a high school diploma
or GED were poor or near poor and 54 per cent had low incomes,
I.e., under two times the
poverty line. Older high school graduates (28%) were only one-half as
likely to be low income and those with a Bachelor’s degree were only
one-fourth as likely to be low income as high school dropouts.
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- Employment rates of the older population (60+) also vary strongly and
positively with their level of schooling and their literacy / numeracy
proficiencies. At the time of the NALS survey, the employment rates of
older workers varied by literacy level as follows:
- Level 1 (lowest) 14%
- Level 2 22%
- Level 3 32%
- Level 4 45%
- Level 5 (highest) ~52%
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- The less educated members of the older population (55-74) are far more
likely to report themselves as disabled and the disabled are much more
likely to be poor / near poor
- <12 34.3%
- 12 19.7%
- 13-15 16.6%
- B.A. 10.6%
- Master’s or higher degree 7.8%
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- More literate older adults are more active in the civic arena
- They are more likely to vote
- Older adults in aggregate are more likely to vote; 84% of older adults
reported having voted in an election in the past five years vs. 62% of
those under 60
- Among older adults, those who voted had a mean prose score about .7
standard deviations above those who did not vote. The average
non-voter had a mean score at level 1.
- They are more likely to volunteer their time
- 14% of older adults said they had volunteered some time in the past
week; those who did had a .5 standard deviation higher score on the
prose literacy scale.
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- More literate older adults are much more likely to be engaged in a
variety of literacy activities
- Use of the public library on a relatively frequent basis
- 79% of adults in Level 1 report no use of library in the past year
versus 39% of those in Level 3 and only 19% of those in Level 4
- More likely to read newspapers and magazines more frequently
- 80% of all older adults say they read a paper at least a few times a
week
- Mean prose scores of those with daily or multiple readings per week
were 90 points or 1.5 standard deviations above those with no weekly
reading
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- What are the implications of these findings both for the nation’s public
library system and for employment and training programs serving older
workers such as the Senior Community Service Employment Program?
- What can libraries do to engage the older population more actively in
literacy / education activities?
- Increase frequency of use of library, the range of literacy activities
undertaken by the older population, including book, newspaper, magazine
reading and more active use of Internet for education and literacy
purposes. Improved outreach for the less literate members of public –
strengthened ties to adult education programs
- Provide more opportunities for older persons to volunteer in libraries;
provide more services, personal outreach to library visitors, more
hours of operation.
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- What can older worker, adult education, and other workforce
development programs do to strengthen the public library system?
- Provide work experience slots for older workers (and young adults) in
public libraries to provide better and more intensive services, help
extend hours of program operations, instruction on computer use,
provide new services (delivery and pick-up of library materials) for
older persons with limited mobility
- Actively promote the use of libraries by the participants served in
these programs, have them see literacy as a lifelong learning activity
not a short spell of instruction
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- Provide co-location for adult education services to increase use of
library facilities by participants and to intensify the amount of time
devoted to literacy activities by participants in ABE programs; average
hours are quite limited but are strongly linked to gains in
English-speaking, reading, and math activities
- The share of ABE participants 60 or older in recent years has been less
than 4% and has been declining over time; no state currently serves
more than 8% older persons in their ABE programs.
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Notes
